Who is favored to win the Senate?

DDHQ's November 2 overview gives Democrats 64%; its later Senate page gives 65% and projects 52 D / 48 R. Silver Bulletin's November 2 model gives approximately 80%. These are separate forecasts, not polls.

Which Senate races are toss-ups?

Cook rates Iowa, Maine, Ohio (special), Texas, Alaska, Kansas as Toss Up.

What is the generic ballot average?

RealClearPolling is 51.6% D / 43.4% R (D+8.2), fetched November 2. Silver Bulletin is D+8.9. NYT D+11 is a secondary citation via Silver Bulletin, not a directly accessed NYT average.

How many seats do Democrats need for the House?

Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats from the supplied 214-seat count to reach a 218-seat majority.

When is Election Day?

Election Day is November 3, 2026.

What is the projected Senate and House makeup after the 2026 election?

As of 2026-11-01, the supplied composite projection is Senate 52 D / 48 R and House 238 D / 197 R. Likely Democratic seat ranges are 50–54 D in the Senate and 227–249 D in the House. It projects 26 D / 24 R governorships. This is a composite of published forecasts, not a poll.

Snapshot as of 2026-11-02

2026 Midterm Election Forecast

Who is favored, by how much, and according to whom. Forecast models, prediction markets and expert ratings, each labeled and sourced.

DDHQ Senate (D)

64%

DDHQ House (D)

84%

Projected post-election makeup

Projection — composite of published forecasts, not a poll

As of 2026-11-01 · DDHQ overview

Composite of Decision Desk HQ race-level win probabilities, Poliwave, Silver Bulletin, Kalshi and Polymarket chamber odds, Inside Elections and Cook ranges. This supplied composite is not a separate model or a recalculated forecast.

Senate (100 total)

51 for a majority

52 D

48 R

Likely range: 50–54 D · Dem control probability: 63–78%

House (435 total)

218 for a majority

238 D

197 R

Likely range: 227–249 D · Dem control probability: 83–95%

Governors (50 total)

26 for a majority

26 D

24 R

Likely range: not supplied · Dem control probability: not supplied

flips current 24–26; 26 marks a majority of governorships, not legislative control.

Ranges and probability spans summarize the supplied forecasts; they are not a single model’s confidence interval. Senate control requires 51 Democratic seats; Republicans retain control at 50–50 via the vice president.

Key races and scenarios

Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas Senate remain the closest R-held seats; DDHQ lists Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups, with Maine Lean D; Inside Elections' final ratings moved Ohio and Texas to Tilt D
If favorites win: Senate 52–53 D; if the toss-ups split, 50–50 and Republicans keep control via the VP
House cushion is roughly 20 seats over 218; the downside tail remains a 2022-style polling miss
Democrats favored in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin governor races; Nevada and Georgia are coin flips; Kansas is now a toss-up after Cook's Oct 27 move

Final pre-election snapshots — research date November 2, 2026. New York Times per-race polling averages were not captured. Older source dates remain labeled; the composite projection remains dated November 1 because no replacement composite was supplied. This page uses user-supplied data, not independently verified against each source. Forecasts and market prices are not poll results. Where a source link was not supplied we say so rather than guess.

Chamber control

Who controls Congress?

Current seat counts, the net gain Democrats need, and each model's probability. DDHQ updated 2026-11-02T03:39:00-05:00.

Senate

100 seats

Current D: 47
Current R: 53
D net gain needed: +4

47 includes 2 independents caucusing with Democrats; Democrats need net +4 (R needs 50 + VP Vance tiebreak)

Forecast model Dem control probability

Model	D win	Proj. D seats	As of	Link
Decision Desk HQ Overview page; per-page figures stored separately	64%	52	2026-11-02	Source
Silver Bulletin FLIPR · Approximate model probability Approximately 80% D control; seat projection not supplied	80%	Not supplied	2026-11-02	Source
Poliwave R 16%; independents decide 8%; shown as published, not normalized	77%	52	2026-11-01	Source
Inside Elections	Not supplied	Not supplied D +4 to +6 seats	2026-10-31	Source
Cook Political Report	Not supplied	Not supplied Democrats pick up 2 to 6 seats	2026-10-30	Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tallies and Iowa toss-up designation preserved as supplied; not reconciled	Not supplied	Not supplied 53 at least Leans D / 47 at least Leans R; Iowa is the only Toss-up	2026-11-02	Source
The Hill / DDHQ	56.0%	51	2026-10-14	Source URL not supplied

Prediction market Market-implied Dem odds

Market	D price	Detail	As of	Link
Kalshi	75%	$163,000,000 volume Observed 2026-11-02; no page timestamp supplied; volume approximate. Yes 75¢ / No 26¢; not normalized.	2026-11-02	Source
Polymarket	76%	Not supplied Observed 2026-11-02; Republican price 26%; no timestamp supplied; not normalized.	2026-11-02	Source

House

435 seats

Current D: 214
Current R: 218
D net gain needed: +4

Democrats need net +4 for 218; 2 vacancies

1 independent (Kiley, caucuses R); 2 vacancies (TX-23, FL-20). Source: House Press Gallery.

Forecast model Dem control probability

Model	D win	Proj. D seats	As of	Link
Decision Desk HQ Overview page; per-page figures stored separately	84%	241	2026-11-02	Source
Poliwave 80% range not supplied Nov 1	88%	230	2026-11-01	Source
Silver Bulletin FLIPR · Approximate model probability Approximately 95% D control; average House gain approximately +25; seat total not supplied	95%	Not supplied Average Democratic gain ≈25 seats	2026-11-02	Source
Inside Elections	Not supplied	Not supplied D +20 to +30	2026-10-31	Source
Cook Political Report	Not supplied	Not supplied Democrats flip 12–25 seats, 227–240 total	2026-10-30	Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball Final Toss-ups broke 14–3 toward Leans D; per-district image table not captured	Not supplied	Not supplied 239 at least Leans D / 196 at least Leans R; no Toss-ups	2026-11-02	Source

Prediction market Market-implied Dem odds

Market	D price	Detail	As of	Link
Kalshi	93.5%	$230,000,000 volume Observed 2026-11-02; no page timestamp supplied; volume approximate.	2026-11-02	Source
Polymarket	95%	Not supplied Observed 2026-11-02; Republican price 6%; no timestamp supplied; not normalized.	2026-11-02	Source

DDHQ overview: 64% D Senate / 84% D House, 2026-11-02T03:39:00-05:00.

Later Senate page: 65% D / 35% R, 52 D / 48 R, 2026-11-02T15:04:00-05:00. Source

House page: 84% D / 16% R, 241 D / 194 R, 2026-11-02T15:03:00-05:00. Source

These are separate published snapshots, not reconciled.

Earlier joint-outcome snapshots

Outcome	DDHQForecast model 2026-10-31	KalshiPrediction market 2026-11-01
D House + D Senate	61%	71%
D House + R Senate	22%	27%
R House + D Senate	1%	0.5%
R House + R Senate	15%	6.7%

Earlier dated figures retained. New November 2 snapshots appear below; different observation times are not reconciled or normalized.DDHQ overview Kalshi balance of power

Election-eve prediction markets

Prediction markets, not polls or forecast models. Observed 2026-11-02; snapshots taken at different times. Prices are preserved as observed, not normalized.

Snapshot	D sweep	D House / R Senate	R sweep	R House / D Senate
Polymarket midterms Observed 2026-11-02 Timestamp not supplied	76%	20%	6%	Not supplied
Kalshi via VegasInsider Observed 2026-11-02 Nov 2 2026, 12:32 PM (timezone not supplied)	66%	29%	8.3%	0.7%
Polymarket via VegasInsider Observed 2026-11-02 Nov 2 2026, 12:32 PM (timezone not supplied)	66%	28%	9%	1%

Snapshot

D sweep

D House / R Senate

R sweep

R House / D Senate

Polymarket midterms

Observed 2026-11-02

Timestamp not supplied

76%

20%

Not supplied

Kalshi via VegasInsider

Observed 2026-11-02

Nov 2 2026, 12:32 PM (timezone not supplied)

66%

29%

8.3%

0.7%

Polymarket via VegasInsider

Observed 2026-11-02

Nov 2 2026, 12:32 PM (timezone not supplied)

66%

28%

Polymarket race prices — not DDHQ forecasts

Race	Priced candidate / party	Price	Observed
TX Senate	D control / win	73¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
MI Senate	D control / win	79¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
ME Senate	D control / win	74¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
OH Senate	D control / win	72¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
AK Senate	D control / win	73¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
KS Senate	D control / win	62¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
IA Senate	D control / win	51¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
MN Senate	D control / win	93¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
NH Senate	D control / win	96¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
GA Senate	D control / win	97¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
NC Senate	D control / win	98¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
NE Senate	R control / win	72¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
SC Senate	R control / win	68¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
FL Senate	R control / win	88¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
LA Senate	R control / win	87¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
TX Governor	Abbott	61¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
OH Governor	Acton	83¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
AK Governor	Kreiss-Tomkins	87¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
FL Governor	Donalds	66¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
NV Governor	Ford	76¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
WI Governor	Crowley	86¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied
AZ Governor	Hobbs	94¢	2026-11-02 · timestamp not supplied

Governors

Statehouses: 36 races

Current counts as of 2026-11-02; forecast publication dates are shown below.

Current governors

24D / 26R

Decision Desk HQ

Forecast model

D favored in 22 of 36

2 toss-ups (NV, OH)

DDHQ's own legend sums D-leaning to 20, not 22; shown as published

As of 2026-10-31 Source

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Expert rating

28 at least Leans D / 22 at least Leans R

As of 2026-11-02 Source

Inside Elections

Expert rating

Final Oct 31: AK, GA, OH, WI Toss-up→Tilt D; NV Tilt R→Toss-up; OR Lean D→Tilt D

As of 2026-10-31 Source

Cook Political Report

Expert rating

Final governors ratings Oct 29; summary tally not supplied

As of 2026-10-29 Source

Generic congressional ballot

National mood

These are poll averages and individual polls, not forecasts. Snapshot 2026-11-02; margins are shown as supplied, including source rounding.

Polling averages and secondary citations

Average	D	R	D margin	Detail	As of	Link
RealClearPolling average Fetched 2026-11-02; fieldwork window not supplied	51.6%	43.4%	+8.2 pts	—	2026-11-02	Source
Silver Bulletin average	51.5%	42.6%	+8.9 pts	—	2026-11-02	Source
FiftyPlusOne average As-of date not shown on page; observed 2026-11-02	52.5%	43.5%	+9 pts	—	Date not shown	Source
Track the Vote average Not refreshed Nov 1 or Nov 2; prior value and date retained	49.9%	40.7%	+9.2 pts	—	2026-10-22	Source URL not supplied
NYT average (secondary citation via Silver Bulletin) Secondary citation, not directly accessed NYT polling-average page; no NYT per-race averages captured	Not supplied	Not supplied	+11 pts	—	2026-11-02	Source
PollCheck average	51.1%	42.8%	+8.3 pts	—	2026-11-02	Source

Individual polls

Pollster	Dates	Sample	D	R	Margin	Link
NYT/Siena	10/12-10/19	3494 LV	52	41	D+11	Source URL not supplied
CNN/SSRS Not refreshed on Nov 2; CNN Poll of Polls not retrievable; prior individual poll retained, no prior CNN average stored	10/15-10/18	1206 RV	49	39	D+10	Source
ABC/WaPo/Ipsos	10/9-10/13	2032 LV	52	44	D+8	Source URL not supplied
Fox News	10/9-10/12	1202 RV	54	45	D+9	Source URL not supplied
Reuters/Ipsos	10/16-10/19	1269 RV	47	35	D+12	Source URL not supplied
Morning Consult	10/12-10/18	17706 LV	50	43	D+7	Source URL not supplied
Echelon Insights	10/15-10/19	1010 LV	50	45	D+5	Source URL not supplied
Rasmussen	10/8-10/14	1789 LV	48	44	D+4	Source URL not supplied
NBC News	10/28–10/30	1000 RV	52	45	D+7	Source
Big Data Poll	10/27–10/30	3214 LV	52	40	D+12	Source
THP/Morning Consult	10/28–10/29	1158 LV	54	41	D+13	Source
Economist/YouGov	10/23–10/26	1263 LV	50	41	D+9	Source
Emerson	10/24–10/26	1000 LV	52	42	D+10	Source
Reuters/Ipsos	10/22–10/26	1164 LV	53	44	D+9	Source
Harvard-Harris	10/24–10/26	LV; sample size not supplied	52	48	D+4	Source
NPR/PBS/Marist Results among LV; supplied sample is RV Released 2026-10-27	10/19–10/20	1289 RV	52	44	D+8	Source
Cygnal	10/23–10/24	1500 LV	52	43	D+9	Source
CBS News/YouGov	10/21–10/23	1749 LV	53	45	D+8	Source
Morning Consult	10/19–10/25	17491 LV	50	43	D+7	Source
Rasmussen	10/15–10/21	1755 LV	48	43	D+5	Source
Financial Times/Focaldata	10/16–10/20	1594 LV	53	44	D+9	Source
Echelon Insights	through 10/23; start not supplied	3644 LV	51	46	D+5	Source
AtlasIntel Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Adults population.	2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01	3566 adults	55.5	41.4	D+14.1	Source
I&I/TIPP Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates.	Not supplied	Not supplied	52	42	D+10	Source
Rasmussen Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates.	Not supplied	Not supplied	49	43	D+6	Source
Morning Consult Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates.	Not supplied	Not supplied	51	43	D+8	Source
Reuters/Ipsos Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates.	Not supplied	Not supplied	52	44	D+8	Source
Financial Times/Focaldata Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates.	Not supplied	2090 LV	52.3	44.8	D+7.5	Source
Economist/YouGov Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates.	Not supplied	Not supplied	53	44	D+9	Source
NBC News Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates. Released 2026-11-01	Not supplied	Not supplied	52	45	D+7	Source
Big Data Poll Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates. Released 2026-10-31	Not supplied	Not supplied	52	40	D+12	Source
Emerson Individual poll; RCP listing Nov 2. Field dates not supplied; listing/release date is not fieldwork date. No deduplication against older polls with unknown matching field dates. Released 2026-10-30	Not supplied	Not supplied	52	42	D+10	Source

Race-by-race

Closest races first

Ranked by how close the DDHQ Democratic win probability is to 50%. Flip badges appear only when DDHQ favors the party that does not currently hold the seat; none at exactly 50% or for vacant/unknown seats. Cook dates: Senate 2026-11-02, Governor 2026-10-30, House 2026-10-30.

Senate

35 races, closest DDHQ odds firstResearch 2026-11-02; per-row source dates shown separatelyForecast modelDDHQ Expert ratingCook

Senate races ranked by closeness of DDHQ Democratic win probability to 50%
#	Race	Held	Cook	DDHQ	D win %	Candidates
1	KS Senate	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Toss Up 2026-11-02	49%	Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R), David Graham (L) Incumbent: Marshall favored party inferred; DDHQ does not label party on toss-up rows
2	IA Senate	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Toss Up 2026-11-02	47%	Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Ernst retiring) favored party inferred; DDHQ does not label party on toss-up rows
3	OH Senate (Special) Flip to D	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Toss Up 2026-11-02	54%	Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) Incumbent: Husted favored party inferred; DDHQ does not label party on toss-up rows
4	AK Senate Flip to D	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Lean D 2026-11-02	61%	Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R) Incumbent: Sullivan Race page Nov 1 confirms Peltola 60%
5	SC Senate	R	Lean R 2026-10-30	Lean R 2026-11-02	39%	Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R) Incumbent: Graham (Darline Graham replaced late Lindsey Graham)
6	TX Senate Flip to D	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Lean D 2026-11-02	62%	James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Cornyn) favored party inferred; DDHQ does not label party on toss-up rows
7	ME Senate Flip to D	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Lean D 2026-11-02	65%	Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R) Incumbent: Collins
8	NE Senate	R	Lean R 2026-10-30	Lean R 2026-11-02	27%	Dan Osborn (I) vs Pete Ricketts (R) Incumbent: Ricketts Independent Dan Osborn challenge; no Democrat on ballot
9	FL Senate (Special)	R	Likely R 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-11-02	25%	Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) Incumbent: Moody
10	MI Senate	D	Lean D 2026-11-02	Likely D 2026-11-02	75%	Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Peters)
11	MT Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-10-31	23%	Alani Bankhead (D), Kurt Alme (R), Seth Bodnar (I) Incumbent: OPEN (Daines)
12	MN Senate	D	Lean D 2026-10-30	Likely D 2026-11-02	85%	Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Smith)
13	NC Senate Flip to D	R	Likely D 2026-10-30	Likely D 2026-11-02	85%	Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Tillis)
14	LA Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-11-02	14.0%	Jamie Davis (D) vs Julia Letlow (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Cassidy)
15	NH Senate	D	Lean D 2026-10-30	Likely D 2026-11-02	88%	Chris Pappas (D) vs John E. Sununu (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Shaheen)
16	GA Senate	D	Likely D 2026-10-30	Likely D 2026-11-02	89%	Jon Ossoff (D) vs Mike Collins (R) Incumbent: Ossoff
17	MS Senate	R	Likely R 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-11-02	10%	Scott Colom (D) vs Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) Incumbent: Hyde-Smith
18	KY Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-10-31	6%	Charles Booker (D) vs Andy Barr (R) Incumbent: OPEN (McConnell)
19	AL Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	5%	Everett Wess (Democrat) vs Barry Moore (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Tuberville)
20	SD Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	5%	Brian Bengs (Independent) vs Mike Rounds (Republican) Incumbent: Rounds
21	IL Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	96%	Juliana Stratton (Democrat) vs Don Tracy (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Durbin)
22	NJ Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	96%	Cory Booker (Democrat) vs Justin Murphy (Republican) Incumbent: Booker
23	NM Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	96%	Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) vs Larry Marker (Republican) Incumbent: Luján
24	VA Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	96%	Mark Warner (Democrat) vs Bert Mizusawa (Republican) Incumbent: Warner
25	AR Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	4%	Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) vs Tom Cotton (Republican) Incumbent: Cotton
26	CO Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	97%	John Hickenlooper (Democrat) vs Mark Baisley (Republican) Incumbent: Hickenlooper
27	TN Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	3%	Marquita Bradshaw (Democrat) vs Bill Hagerty (Republican) Incumbent: Hagerty
28	ID Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	2%	Todd Achilles (Independent) vs Jim Risch (Republican) Incumbent: Risch
29	OK Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	2%	N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (Democrat) vs Kevin Hern (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Mullin)
30	DE Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	99%	Chris Coons (Democrat) vs Michael Katz (Republican) Incumbent: Coons
31	MA Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	99%	Ed Markey (Democrat) vs John Deaton (Republican) Incumbent: Markey
32	OR Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	99%	Jeff Merkley (Democrat) vs David Brock Smith (Republican) Incumbent: Merkley
33	RI Senate	D	Solid D 2026-10-30	Safe D 2026-10-31	99%	Jack Reed (Democrat) vs Raymond McKay (Republican) Incumbent: Reed
34	WY Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	1%	James Byrd (Democrat) vs Harriet Hageman (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Lummis)
35	WV Senate	R	Solid R 2026-10-30	Safe R 2026-10-31	0.5%	Rachel Fetty Anderson (Democrat) vs Shelley Moore Capito (Republican) Incumbent: Capito

Governor

36 races, closest DDHQ odds firstResearch 2026-11-02; per-row source dates shown separatelyForecast modelDDHQ Expert ratingCook

Governor races ranked by closeness of DDHQ Democratic win probability to 50%
#	Race	Held	Cook	DDHQ	D win %	Candidates
1	NV Governor Flip to D	R	Toss Up 2026-10-29	Toss Up 2026-11-02	57.0%	Aaron Ford (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R, inc.) favored party inferred
2	FL Governor	R	Lean R 2026-10-29	Lean R 2026-11-02	39%	David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R)
3	GA Governor Flip to D	R	Toss Up 2026-10-29	Lean D 2026-11-02	61%	Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs Rick Jackson (R)
4	OH Governor Flip to D	R	Toss Up 2026-10-29	Lean D 2026-11-02	63%	Amy Acton (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (R) favored party inferred
5	Kansas Governor Flip to R	D	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Lean R 2026-11-02	36%	Cindy Holscher (D) vs Ty Masterson (R)
6	New Hampshire Governor	R	Likely R 2026-10-29	Lean R 2026-11-02	34%	Cinde Warmington (D) vs Kelly Ayotte (R, inc.)
7	Texas Governor	R	Lean R 2026-10-29	Lean R 2026-11-02	32%	Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R, inc.)
8	Alaska Governor Flip to D	R	Lean D 2026-10-29	Lean D 2026-11-02	69%	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), Bernadette Wilson (R), Dave Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R) Ranked-choice top-four general; field per aggregators; confirm with Alaska Division of Elections
9	Iowa Governor Flip to D	R	Lean D 2026-10-29	Lean D 2026-11-02	71%	Rob Sand (D) vs Zach Lahn (R)
10	WI Governor	D	Lean D 2026-10-30	Lean D 2026-11-02	72%	David Crowley (D) vs Tom Tiffany (R)
11	South Carolina Governor	R	Solid R 2026-10-29	Lean R 2026-10-31	26%	Jermaine Johnson (D) vs Alan Wilson (R)
12	AZ Governor	D	Likely D 2026-10-30	Likely D 2026-11-02	76%	Katie Hobbs (D, inc.) vs Andy Biggs (R)
13	Nebraska Governor	R	Lean R 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-11-02	20%	Lynne Walz (D) vs Jim Pillen (R, inc.)
14	MI Governor	D	Lean D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-11-02	80%	Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R)
15	Oregon Governor	D	Lean D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-11-02	81%	Tina Kotek (D, inc.) vs Christine Drazan (R)
16	Maine Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-11-02	85%	Hannah Pingree (D) vs Robert Charles (R) Robert Charles also known as Bobby Charles
17	New Mexico Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-10-31	87%	Deb Haaland (D) vs Greggory Hull (R)
18	Minnesota Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-11-02	91%	Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Lisa Demuth (R)
19	Alabama Governor	R	Solid R 2026-10-29	Likely R 2026-10-31	8%	Doug Jones (D) vs Tommy Tuberville (R)
20	New York Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-11-02	92%	Kathy Hochul (D, inc.) vs Bruce Blakeman (R)
21	Vermont Governor	R	Likely R 2026-10-29	Likely R 2026-10-31	7.0%	Amanda Janoo (D) vs Phil Scott (R, inc.)
22	Tennessee Governor	R	Solid R 2026-10-29	Likely R 2026-10-31	7.0%	Jerri Green (D) vs Marsha Blackburn (R)
23	Connecticut Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-10-31	93%	Ned Lamont (D, inc.) vs Ryan Fazio (R)
24	Colorado Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Likely D 2026-10-31	93%	Phil Weiser (D) vs Victor Marx (R)
25	Illinois Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Safe D 2026-10-31	95%	JB Pritzker (D, inc.) vs Darren Bailey (R)
26	Oklahoma Governor	R	Likely R 2026-10-29	Safe R 2026-10-31	5%	Cyndi Munson (D) vs Mike Mazzei (R)
27	Pennsylvania Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Safe D 2026-11-02	96%	Josh Shapiro (D, inc.) vs Stacy Garrity (R)
28	Rhode Island Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Safe D 2026-10-31	96%	Helena Foulkes (D) vs Aaron Guckian (R); Ken Block (I)
29	South Dakota Governor	R	Solid R 2026-10-29	Safe R 2026-10-31	3%	Dan Ahlers (D) vs Larry Rhoden (R, inc.)
30	California Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Safe D 2026-10-31	98%	Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R)
31	Arkansas Governor	R	Solid R 2026-10-29	Safe R 2026-10-31	2%	Fred Love (D) vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R, inc.)
32	Hawaii Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Safe D 2026-10-31	99%	Josh Green (D, inc.) vs Gary Cordery (R)
33	Massachusetts Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Safe D 2026-10-31	99%	Maura Healey (D, inc.) vs Michael Minogue (R)
34	Idaho Governor	R	Solid R 2026-10-29	Safe R 2026-10-31	0.5%	Terri Pickens (D) vs Brad Little (R, inc.)
35	Maryland Governor	D	Solid D 2026-10-29	Safe D 2026-10-31	99.5%	Wes Moore (D, inc.) vs Dan Cox (R)
36	Wyoming Governor	R	Solid R 2026-10-29	Safe R 2026-10-31	0.5%	Ken Casner (D) vs Eric Barlow (R)

House (competitive districts supplied)

The October 16 list reconciled 79 Cook competitive seats; seven added districts bring this snapshot to 86 House races. Cook's published October 23 counts list 80 non-solid seats and sum to 434, as published. Cook's October 23 batch of 19 moves is not itemized per district; the 12 October 30 moves are applied separately. Counts and district rows are not reconciled across dates. DDHQ rows not updated October 31 retain their October 22 figures, with dates shown.

Sabato final November 2: 239 at least Leans D / 196 at least Leans R. 239 at least Leans D / 196 at least Leans R; final Toss-ups broke 14–3 toward Leans D. Final per-district table was published as images and was not captured; other per-district values retain prior dates. Inside Elections (October 31): Democrats +20 to +30 seats; 82 competitive races.

Cook November 2 totals (separate from older counts): 222 D / 195 R / 18 Toss Up; projected Democratic gain 15–25 seats. DDHQ rows not updated November 2 retain their prior dates.

86 races, closest DDHQ odds firstResearch 2026-11-02; per-row source dates shown separatelyForecast modelDDHQ Expert ratingCook

House races ranked by closeness of DDHQ Democratic win probability to 50%
#	Race	Held	Cook	DDHQ	D win %	Candidates
1	TX-15 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Toss Up 2026-10-31	51%	Bobby Pulido (Democrat) vs Monica De La Cruz (Republican) Incumbent: De La Cruz (R) favored party inferred
2	FL-22 House	D	Toss Up	Toss Up 2026-10-31	51%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Frankel, D) favored party inferred
3	TX-35 House	D	Lean R	Toss Up 2026-10-31	51%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Casar, D; redrawn) favored party inferred
4	IA-02 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Toss Up 2026-10-31	52%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Hinson, R) favored party inferred
5	MT-01 House	R	Toss Up	Toss Up 2026-10-31	47%	Sam Forstag (Democrat) vs Aaron Flint (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Zinke, R) favored party inferred
6	ME-02 House	D	Lean R	Toss Up 2026-10-31	53%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Golden, D) favored party inferred
7	OH-07 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Toss Up 2026-10-31	53%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Miller (R) favored party inferred
8	PA-01 House	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Toss Up 2026-10-31	45%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Fitzpatrick (R) favored party inferred
9	CO-03 House	R	Likely R	Toss Up 2026-10-31	43%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Hurd (R) favored party inferred
10	NC-11 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Toss Up 2026-10-31	58.0%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Edwards, R) favored party inferred
11	FL-09 House Flip to R	D	Lean R 2026-10-30	Toss Up 2026-10-31	42%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Soto (D; redrawn) favored party inferred
12	MI-04 House	R	Toss Up	Toss Up 2026-10-31	41%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Huizenga (R) favored party inferred
13	KY-06 House	R	Lean R	Toss Up 2026-10-31	40%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Barr, R) favored party inferred
14	NY-17 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Lean D 2026-10-31	62%	Cait Conley (Democrat) vs Mike Lawler (Republican) Incumbent: Lawler (R)
15	NY-01 House	R	Solid R	Lean R 2026-10-31	38%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: LaLota (R)
16	WI-01 House	R	Lean R	Lean R 2026-10-31	37%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Steil (R)
17	VA-01 House	R	Toss Up	Lean R 2026-10-31	36%	Taylor (Democrat) vs Wittman (Republican) Incumbent: Wittman (R)
18	NC-01 House	D	Toss Up	Lean D 2026-10-31	64%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Davis (D)
19	SC-01 House	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Lean R 2026-10-31	36%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Mace, R)
20	MO-02 House	R	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	35%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Wagner (R)
21	MN-01 House	R	Lean R	Lean R 2026-10-31	34%	Johnson (Democrat) vs Finstad (Republican) Incumbent: Finstad (R)
22	PA-08 House Flip to D	R	Lean D 2026-10-30	Lean D 2026-10-31	66%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Bresnahan (R)
23	MI-10 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Lean D 2026-10-31	67%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (James, R)
24	VA-05 House	R	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	32%	McGuire (Republican) vs Perriello (Democrat) Incumbent: McGuire (R)
25	FL-13 House	R	Lean R	Lean R 2026-10-31	32%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Luna (R)
26	FL-07 House	R	Lean R 2026-10-30	Lean R 2026-10-31	31%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Mills, R)
27	OH-09 House	D	Lean D 2026-10-30	Lean D 2026-10-22	70%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Kaptur (D)
28	FL-25 House	D	Lean D	Lean D 2026-10-31	70%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Moskowitz (D)
29	AL-02 House Flip to R	D	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	30%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Figures (D; redrawn)
30	TX-23 House	Vacant	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	30%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: VACANT
31	NC-03 House	R	Solid R	Lean R 2026-10-31	30%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Murphy (R)
32	PA-10 House Flip to D	R	Lean D	Lean D 2026-10-31	71%	Janelle Stelson (Democrat) vs Scott Perry (Republican) Incumbent: Perry (R)
33	NV-02 House	R	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	29.0%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Amodei, R)
34	NJ-02 House	R	Likely R 2026-10-30	Lean R 2026-10-31	29.0%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Van Drew (R)
35	FL-14 House	D	Toss Up	Lean D 2026-10-31	73%	Kathy Castor (Democrat) vs Mike Beltran (Republican) Incumbent: Castor (D)
36	TX-34 House	D	Toss Up	Lean D 2026-10-22	73%	Vicente Gonzalez (Democrat) vs Eric Flores (Republican) Incumbent: Gonzalez (D)
37	AK-AL House	R	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	27%	Begich (Republican) vs Hill (Independent) Incumbent: Begich (R)
38	AZ-01 House Flip to D	R	Lean D	Lean D 2026-10-22	73%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Schweikert, R)
39	FL-27 House	R	Lean R	Lean R 2026-10-31	27%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Salazar (R)
40	AZ-02 House	R	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	27%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Crane (R)
41	FL-04 House	R	Solid R	Lean R 2026-10-31	27%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Rutherford (R)
42	PA-07 House Flip to D	R	Lean D	Lean D 2026-10-22	74%	Bob Brooks (Democrat) vs Ryan Mackenzie (Republican) Incumbent: Mackenzie (R)
43	IA-03 House Flip to D	R	Lean D	Lean D 2026-10-31	74%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Nunn (R)
44	FL-16 House	R	Likely R	Lean R 2026-10-31	26%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Buchanan, R)
45	WI-03 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Likely D 2026-10-22	77%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Van Orden (R)
46	OH-01 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	77%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Landsman (D)
47	MI-07 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Likely D 2026-10-22	78%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Barrett (R)
48	IA-01 House Flip to D	R	Lean D	Likely D 2026-10-22	79%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Miller-Meeks (R)
49	CO-05 House	R	Toss Up 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-10-22	20%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Crank (R)
50	AR-02 House	R	Likely R	Likely R 2026-10-22	20%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Hill (R)
51	CO-08 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Likely D 2026-10-22	81%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Evans (R)
52	NM-02 House	D	Lean D	Likely D 2026-10-22	82%	Gabe Vasquez (Democrat) vs Greg Cunningham (Republican) Incumbent: Vasquez (D)
53	OH-15 House	R	Lean R	Likely R 2026-10-22	18%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Carey (R)
54	VA-02 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Likely D 2026-10-22	83%	Luria (Democrat) vs Kiggans (Republican) Incumbent: Kiggans (R)
55	NY-21 House	R	Lean R	Likely R 2026-10-22	16%	Blake Gendebien (Democrat) vs Anthony Constantino (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Stefanik, R)
56	CA-22 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Likely D 2026-11-02	84%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Valadao (R) Probability updated Nov 2; rating label retained from prior snapshot, not supplied in this update
57	AZ-06 House Flip to D	R	Toss Up	Likely D 2026-10-22	84%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Ciscomani (R)
58	NJ-07 House Flip to D	R	Lean D	Likely D 2026-10-22	85%	Rebecca Bennett (Democrat) vs Thomas Kean Jr. (Republican) Incumbent: Kean Jr. (R)
59	IN-05 House	R	Lean R 2026-10-30	Likely R 2026-10-22	15%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Spartz (R)
60	NV-03 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	85%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Lee (D)
61	CA-13 House	D	Lean D	Likely D 2026-11-02	87%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Gray (D) Probability updated Nov 2; rating label retained from prior snapshot, not supplied in this update
62	OH-10 House	R	Lean R	Likely R 2026-10-22	13%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Turner (R)
63	NY-04 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	87%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Gillen (D)
64	NH-01 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	89%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Pappas, D)
65	NE-01 House	R	Likely R	Likely R 2026-10-22	11%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Flood (R)
66	KS-02 House	R	Likely R	Likely R 2026-10-22	11%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Schmidt (R)
67	NY-19 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	90%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Riley (D)
68	TX-09 House Flip to R	D	Likely R	Likely R 2026-10-22	10%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Green, D; redrawn)
69	NV-01 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	90%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Titus (D)
70	NV-04 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	90%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Horsford (D)
71	TX-28 House	D	Lean D	Likely D 2026-10-22	91%	Henry Cuellar (Democrat) vs Tano Tijerina (Republican) Incumbent: Cuellar (D)
72	WA-03 House	D	Lean D	Likely D 2026-10-22	91%	Braun (Republican) vs Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) Incumbent: Perez (D)
73	CA-48 House Flip to D	R	Lean D	Likely D 2026-11-02	92%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Issa, R) Probability updated Nov 2; rating label retained from prior snapshot, not supplied in this update
74	NY-03 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	92%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Suozzi (D)
75	OH-13 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	92%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Sykes (D)
76	VA-07 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	92%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Vindman (D)
77	CA-45 House	D	Likely D	Likely D 2026-11-02	94%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Tran (D) Probability updated Nov 2; rating label retained from prior snapshot, not supplied in this update
78	NE-02 House Flip to D	R	Likely D	Likely D 2026-10-22	94%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Bacon, R)
79	MI-08 House	D	Likely D	Safe D 2026-10-22	97%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: McDonald Rivet (D)
80	CA-21 House	D	Likely D	Safe D 2026-11-02	97%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Costa (D) Probability updated Nov 2; rating label retained from prior snapshot, not supplied in this update
81	IN-01 House	D	Likely D	Safe D 2026-10-22	97%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Mrvan (D)
82	MN-02 House	D	Likely D	Safe D 2026-10-22	97%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Craig, D)
83	NJ-09 House	D	Likely D	Safe D 2026-10-22	97%	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Pou (D)
84	NC-05 House	R	Likely R 2026-10-30	Not supplied Date not supplied	Not supplied	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Foxx (R) Not supplied in the Oct 31 competitive table; no prior district figure stored
85	NC-09 House	R	Likely R 2026-10-30	Not supplied Date not supplied	Not supplied	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Harrigan (R) Not supplied in the Oct 31 competitive table; no prior district figure stored
86	WA-05 House	R	Likely R 2026-10-30	Not supplied Date not supplied	Not supplied	Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Baumgartner (R) Not supplied in the Oct 31 competitive table; no prior district figure stored

FAQ

2026 forecast questions, answered

Short answers drawn from the same snapshot as this page (2026-11-02).

Who is favored to win the Senate?: DDHQ's November 2 overview gives Democrats 64%; its later Senate page gives 65% and projects 52 D / 48 R. Silver Bulletin's November 2 model gives approximately 80%. These are separate forecasts, not polls.
Which Senate races are toss-ups?: Cook rates Iowa, Maine, Ohio (special), Texas, Alaska, Kansas as Toss Up.
What is the generic ballot average?: RealClearPolling is 51.6% D / 43.4% R (D+8.2), fetched November 2. Silver Bulletin is D+8.9. NYT D+11 is a secondary citation via Silver Bulletin, not a directly accessed NYT average.
Are these the final pre-election snapshots?: Final pre-election snapshots — research date November 2, 2026. New York Times per-race polling averages were not captured. Older source dates remain labeled; the composite projection remains dated November 1 because no replacement composite was supplied.
How many seats do Democrats need for the House?: Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats from the supplied 214-seat count to reach a 218-seat majority.
When is Election Day?: Election Day is November 3, 2026.
What is the projected Senate and House makeup after the 2026 election?: As of 2026-11-01, the supplied composite projection is Senate 52 D / 48 R and House 238 D / 197 R. Likely Democratic seat ranges are 50–54 D in the Senate and 227–249 D in the House. It projects 26 D / 24 R governorships. This is a composite of published forecasts, not a poll.