California CA-22 House Race 2026
Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.
Latest poll
USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, fielded 2026-10-22 to 2026-10-28
Cook rating 2026-10-16 (retained) · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.
n=356 / LV; released 2026-10-30; sampled from PDI voter file; no external sponsor; story: https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/usc-dornsife-poll-finds-democrats-leading-in-four-california-congressional-races-redrawn-under-prop-50/; MOE ±5.2. thedemocracylab.com
Lead of 11 pts for Villegas in a single poll. Not a win probability.
Ratings and forecast
- Cook rating
- Toss Up
- DDHQ rating
- Likely D
- DDHQ Dem win chance
- 84%
- Currently held by
- R
Probability updated Nov 2; rating label retained from prior snapshot, not supplied in this update
Candidates
Candidates not supplied in this snapshot.
Seat / incumbent: Valadao (R)
Poll history (1)
| Pollster | Field dates | Results | Sample / method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future | 2026-10-22 to 2026-10-28 | Villegas (Democrat) 52%Valadao (Republican) 41%Undecided (Undecided) 6% | n=356 / LV; released 2026-10-30; sampled from PDI voter file; no external sponsor; story: https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/usc-dornsife-poll-finds-democrats-leading-in-four-california-congressional-races-redrawn-under-prop-50/; MOE ±5.2 | thedemocracylab.com Original release |
Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.
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