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Iowa Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Josh Turek (Democrat)48%
Ashley Hinson (Republican)47%

The New York Times / Siena College, fielded 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01

Cook: Toss UpDDHQ: 47% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=705 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±4.7; field dates per aggregator listings.. sri.siena.edu

Lead of 1 pts for Josh Turek in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Toss Up
DDHQ rating
Toss Up
DDHQ Dem win chance
47%
Currently held by
R

favored party inferred; DDHQ does not label party on toss-up rows

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Josh TurekDemocrat
  • Ashley HinsonRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Ernst retiring)

Poll history (34)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
The New York Times / Siena College2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01Josh Turek (Democrat) 48%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 47%n=705 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±4.7; field dates per aggregator listings.sri.siena.edu Original release
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01Josh Turek (Democrat) 50.5%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 46.4%n=1,219 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
GrayHouse2026-10-28 to 2026-10-31Ashley Hinson (Republican) 48%Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%Laehn (Unknown) 2%n=601 / LV; GrayHouse (R); primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
YouGov2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Josh Turek (Democrat) 50%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 49%n=2,020 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 1realclearpolling.com Original release
co/efficient (R)2026-10-28Ashley Hinson (Republican) 48%Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%n=1,020 / LV; co/efficient (R); sponsor not suppliedpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Echelon Insights (R)2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23Josh Turek (Democrat) 45%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 43%n=403 / LV; sponsor: NetChoice (trade group); Echelon Insights (R)pollcheck.co.uk Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22Ashley Hinson (Republican) 47%Josh Turek (Democrat) 45%n=1,200 / LV270towin.com Original release
co/efficient2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19Ashley Hinson (Republican) 49%Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%n=863 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
co/efficient (R)2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19Ashley Hinson (Republican) 48%Josh Turek (Democrat) 45%n=863 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15Ashley Hinson (Republican) 46%Josh Turek (Democrat) 44%n=1,094 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15Ashley Hinson (Republican) 46%Josh Turek (Democrat) 44%n=1,094 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Cook Political Report*2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 44%n=602 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D)2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 44%n=602 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
YouGov2026-10-06 to 2026-10-12Josh Turek (Democrat) 47%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 46%n=2,245 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Marist2026-10-08 to 2026-10-11Josh Turek (Democrat) 48%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 45%n=1,100 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Emerson*2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06Ashley Hinson (Republican) 47%Josh Turek (Democrat) 45%n=650 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Emerson College2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06Ashley Hinson (Republican) 47%Josh Turek (Democrat) 45%n=650 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
CNN2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05Ashley Hinson (Republican) 45%Josh Turek (Democrat) 43%n=801 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
CNN/SSRS2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05Ashley Hinson (Republican) 45%Josh Turek (Democrat) 43%n=801 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Suffolk University2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04Josh Turek (Democrat) 48%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 44%n=500 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-30Josh Turek (Democrat) 47%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 43%n=1,048 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-28 to 2026-09-29Ashley Hinson (Republican) 47%Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%n=738 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28Josh Turek (Democrat) 49%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 47%n=1,008 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-22 to 2026-09-23Josh Turek (Democrat) 47%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 46%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Marist University2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20Josh Turek (Democrat) 50%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 42%n=1,050 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Trafalgar Group2026-09-16 to 2026-09-18Ashley Hinson (Republican) 44%Josh Turek (Democrat) 42.1%n=1,089 / Trafalgar Group statewide survey of likely general-election voters; response rate 5.7%, 95% confidence.poliwave.com Original release
co/efficient2026-09-14 to 2026-09-16Ashley Hinson (Republican) 46%Josh Turek (Democrat) 42%n=831 / Mobile text responses and landline interviews of likely general-election voters; weighted by age, gender, race, education, congressional district, and community type.poliwave.com Original release
Cygnal (R)2026-09-09 to 2026-09-11Josh Turek (Democrat) 43%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 43%n=500 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports (R)2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Josh Turek (Democrat) 45%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 40%n=1,031 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-03 to 2026-09-08Josh Turek (Democrat) 47%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 43%n=2,041 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Emerson College2026-08-31 to 2026-09-01Ashley Hinson (Republican) 50%Josh Turek (Democrat) 45%n=750 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Global Strategy Group (D)2026-08-27 to 2026-08-31Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 42%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Abacus Data2026-08-26 to 2026-08-28Josh Turek (Democrat) 54%Ashley Hinson (Republican) 45%n=323 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
RasmussenField dates not suppliedAshley Hinson (Republican) 47%Josh Turek (Democrat) 46%n unknown / LV; Rasmussen (R); primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 2; field dates not statedrealclearpolling.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

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