D

Maine Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Troy Jackson (Democrat)51%
Susan Collins (Republican)45%

The New York Times / Siena College, fielded 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-01

Cook: Toss UpDDHQ: 65% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=714 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±4.7; field dates per aggregator listings.. sri.siena.edu

Lead of 6 pts for Troy Jackson in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Toss Up
DDHQ rating
Lean D
DDHQ Dem win chance
65%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Troy JacksonDemocrat
  • Susan CollinsRepublican

Seat / incumbent: Collins

Poll history (41)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
The New York Times / Siena College2026-10-27 to 2026-11-01Troy Jackson (Democrat) 51%Susan Collins (Republican) 45%n=714 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±4.7; field dates per aggregator listings.sri.siena.edu Original release
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01Troy Jackson (Democrat) 53.1%Susan Collins (Republican) 44%n=967 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; MOE ±3.0535.wtf Original release
Survey1602026-10-27 to 2026-11-01Troy Jackson (Democrat) 50%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=1,322 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; LV result; RV 49–47pollcheck.co.uk Original release
UNH Survey Center2026-10-27 to 2026-10-31Troy Jackson (Democrat) 54%Susan Collins (Republican) 45%n=1,654 / LV; Pine Tree State Poll; published 2026-11-01scholars.unh.edu Original release
YouGov2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Troy Jackson (Democrat) 52%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=1,503 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 1realclearpolling.com Original release
Data for Progress (D)2026-10-23 to 2026-10-27Troy Jackson (Democrat) 50%Susan Collins (Republican) 45%n=652 / LV; Data for Progress (D); sponsor not supplieddataforprogress.org Original release
CNN/SSRS2026-10-20 to 2026-10-25Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 45%n=783 / 783 RV; ballot results among LVpressherald.com Original release
Marist2026-10-22 to 2026-10-25Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n unknown / LV; sample size not suppliedmaristpoll.marist.edu Original release
Trafalgar (R)2026-10-21 to 2026-10-23Susan Collins (Republican) 47%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 47%n=1,077 / LV; Trafalgar (R); sponsor not suppliedrealclearpolling.com Original release
Fox News2026-10-16 to 2026-10-20Susan Collins (Republican) 49%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%n=1,514 / LVstatic.foxnews.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=1,200 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Suffolk University2026-10-08 to 2026-10-11Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=500 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=804 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Washington Post2026-09-30 to 2026-10-05Troy Jackson (Democrat) 50%Susan Collins (Republican) 46%n=800 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Marist2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04Troy Jackson (Democrat) 51%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=1,505 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group2026-09-29 to 2026-10-01Troy Jackson (Democrat) 46%Susan Collins (Republican) 46%n=1,091 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
CBS News2026-09-23 to 2026-10-01Troy Jackson (Democrat) 50%Susan Collins (Republican) 50%n=1,136 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
co/efficient2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30Susan Collins (Republican) 48%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 46%n=1,240 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
MPRC2026-09-25 to 2026-09-29Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=684 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15Susan Collins (Republican) 47.1%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 46.4%n=621 / Quantus Insights survey of 644 likely Maine voters; the reported initial Senate ballot excludes 23 respondents who said they would not vote in the race, for a reporting base of 621.poliwave.com Original release
UMass Lowell2026-07-09Troy Jackson (Democrat) 47%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=1,000 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Z to A Research (D)2026-07-07 to 2026-07-08Troy Jackson (Democrat) 47%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=988 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Tavern Research (D)2026-07-03 to 2026-07-06Troy Jackson (Democrat) 52%Susan Collins (Republican) 48%n=1,074 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.2026-06-30Susan Collins (Republican) 50%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 47%n=1,000 / Unknownpoliwave.com
NYT/Siena2026-06-29Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-06-23 to 2026-06-27Susan Collins (Republican) 50%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 47%n=1,003 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University2026-06-19 to 2026-06-26Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 47%n=608 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Wick/2WAY2026-06-11 to 2026-06-14Troy Jackson (Democrat) 48%Susan Collins (Republican) 45%n=1,008 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-06-09 to 2026-06-11Troy Jackson (Democrat) 46%Susan Collins (Republican) 45%n=870 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Tavern Research (D)2026-06-05 to 2026-06-08Troy Jackson (Democrat) 51%Susan Collins (Republican) 49%n=1,642 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
The Public Sentiment Institute2026-06-08Susan Collins (Republican) 44%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 43%n=497 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-06-02 to 2026-06-03Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 45%n=670 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)2026-06-01 to 2026-06-03Troy Jackson (Democrat) 46%Susan Collins (Republican) 46%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com
UMass Lowell/YouGov2026-05-13 to 2026-05-26Troy Jackson (Democrat) 48%Susan Collins (Republican) 43%n=650 / Unknownpoliwave.com
University of New Hampshire2026-05-21 to 2026-05-25Troy Jackson (Democrat) 51%Susan Collins (Republican) 42%n=1,280 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Pan Atlantic Research2026-05-08 to 2026-05-18Troy Jackson (Democrat) 48%Susan Collins (Republican) 41%n=827 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Maine People's Resource Center (D)2026-03-20 to 2026-03-31Troy Jackson (Democrat) 48%Susan Collins (Republican) 39%n=1,167 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-03-05Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 42%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)2026-01-20 to 2026-01-24Susan Collins (Republican) 45%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 44%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Emerson/Poll VaultField dates not suppliedSusan Collins (Republican) 51%Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49%n unknown / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 2; Poll Vault release paywalled; field dates not statedrealclearpolling.com Original release
RasmussenField dates not suppliedTroy Jackson (Democrat) 49%Susan Collins (Republican) 46%n unknown / LV; Rasmussen (R); primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 2; field dates not statedrealclearpolling.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

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