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Minnesota Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Peggy Flanagan (Democrat)48.1%
Michele Tafoya (Republican)45.7%

AtlasIntel, fielded 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01

Cook: Lean DDDHQ: 85% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=2,133 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing. 535.wtf

Lead of 2.4 pts for Peggy Flanagan in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Lean D
DDHQ rating
Likely D
DDHQ Dem win chance
85%
Currently held by
D

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Peggy FlanaganDemocrat
  • Michele TafoyaRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Smith)

Poll history (27)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48.1%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45.7%n=2,133 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
Research Co.2026-10-30 to 2026-11-01Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 43%n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Survey1602026-10-27 to 2026-11-01Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 52%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 43%n=1,365 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-29 to 2026-10-30Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 49%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 46%n=1,200 / LV; InsiderAdvantage (R); primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
KSTP/SurveyUSA2026-10-24 to 2026-10-28Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 41%n=714 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
NYT/Siena2026-10-19 to 2026-10-26Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 54%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 40%n=752 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Victory Insights (R)2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44%n=1,194 / LV; campaign-sponsored; sponsor: Tafoya campaign; Victory Insights (R)pollcheck.co.uk Original release
Rasmussen (R)2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45%n=1,182 / LV; Rasmussen (R); sponsor not suppliedpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45%n=1,079 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45%n=1,079 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
KSTP/SurveyUSA*2026-10-08 to 2026-10-12Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 45%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 42%n=718 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 47%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 43%n=800 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45%n=856 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Daily Agenda/Morning Consult2026-10-02 to 2026-10-07Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 45%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 41%n=1,000 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports (R)2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45%n=856 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 47%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 43%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Morning Consult (D)2026-10-02 to 2026-10-07Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 45%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 41%n=1,000 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
GQR (D)2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 53%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Big Data Poll*2026-09-29 to 2026-09-30Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 46%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44%n=622 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-28 to 2026-09-29Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 46%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
co/efficient2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 43%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 42%n=833 / Mobile text responses and live landline interviews of likely general-election voters; weighted by age, gender, race, education, congressional district, and party affiliation.poliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44%n=720 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
TIPP Insights (R)2026-08-31 to 2026-09-02Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 44%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 42%n=1,201 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Deep Root Analytics (R)2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 50%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45%n=597 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
KTSP/SurveyUSA2026-08-13 to 2026-08-17Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 46%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 41%n=661 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Impact Research (D)2026-05-26 to 2026-05-28Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 51%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44%n=808 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Emerson College2026-02-06 to 2026-02-08Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 47%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 40%n=1,000 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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