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Montana Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Seth Bodnar (Independent)39%
Kurt Alme (Republican)38%
Alani Bankhead (Democrat)10%
Kyle Austin (Libertarian)2%

Concord Public Opinion Partners (D), fielded 2026-10-22 to 2026-10-23

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: 23% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-31. Win chance, not vote share.

n=410 / LV; sponsor: Education Reform Now Advocacy; Concord Public Opinion Partners (D). pollcheck.co.uk

Lead of 1 pts for Seth Bodnar in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Solid R
DDHQ rating
Likely R
DDHQ Dem win chance
23%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Alani BankheadDemocrat
  • Kurt AlmeRepublican
  • Seth BodnarIndependent

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Daines)

Poll history (18)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)2026-10-22 to 2026-10-23Seth Bodnar (Independent) 39%Kurt Alme (Republican) 38%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 10%Kyle Austin (Libertarian) 2%n=410 / LV; sponsor: Education Reform Now Advocacy; Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)pollcheck.co.uk Original release
Montana State University Billings2026-10-05 to 2026-10-21Kurt Alme (Republican) 30%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 26%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 21%Kyle Austin (Libertarian) 3%n=720 / Adults; not restricted to LV/RVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Quantus Insights2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 28%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 21%Austin (Libertarian) 2%n=686 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Kurt Alme (Republican) 47%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 31%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=667 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Peak Insights (R)2026-10-07 to 2026-10-12Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 29%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 12%n=500 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Concord Public Opinion Partners2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08Seth Bodnar (Independent) 37%Kurt Alme (Republican) 35%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 13%n=405 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
American Pulse Research2026-09-19 to 2026-09-24Kurt Alme (Republican) 45%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 26%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 19%n=604 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 24%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 23%n=625 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Aspect Strategic2026-09-07 to 2026-09-15Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 32%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 14%n=715 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Montana Free Press2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07Kurt Alme (Republican) 38%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 30%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 16%Austin (Libertarian) 5%n=845 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Rutgers Eagleton/Montana Free Press2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07Kurt Alme (Republican) 38%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 30%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 16%n=845 / Montana Insights Poll conducted by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling for Montana Free Press; registered voters were sampled from the voter file, invited by text to complete an online survey, and weighted to statewide voter demographics. House contest (MT-01 Western District subsample n=375, RV) added 2026-10-01 from the MTFP article https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/14/flint-forstag-in-dead-heat-for-house-seat/poliwave.com Original release
Peak Insights2026-08-23 to 2026-08-25Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 22%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 19%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Hart Research (D)2026-08-01 to 2026-08-04Kurt Alme (Republican) 45%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 30%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 15%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Tavern Research (D)2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27Kurt Alme (Republican) 49%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 27%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 24%n=517 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
GQR (D)2026-07-23 to 2026-07-26Kurt Alme (Republican) 41%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 27%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=500 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Bullfinch Group (R)2026-07-13 to 2026-07-16Kurt Alme (Republican) 36%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 24%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=793 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Hart Research (D)2026-06-18 to 2026-06-24Kurt Alme (Republican) 47%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 25%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Tavern Research (D)2026-06-16 to 2026-06-19Kurt Alme (Republican) 49%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 26%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 24%n=400 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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