D

North Carolina Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Roy Cooper (Democrat)56.4%
Michael Whatley (Republican)41.5%

AtlasIntel, fielded 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01

Cook: Likely DDDHQ: 85% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=1,459 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing. 535.wtf

Lead of 14.9 pts for Roy Cooper in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Likely D
DDHQ rating
Likely D
DDHQ Dem win chance
85%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Roy CooperDemocrat
  • Michael WhatleyRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Tillis)

Poll history (34)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01Roy Cooper (Democrat) 56.4%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41.5%n=1,459 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
YouGov2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Roy Cooper (Democrat) 55%Michael Whatley (Republican) 44%n=2,130 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
East Carolina University2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Roy Cooper (Democrat) 54%Michael Whatley (Republican) 45%n=1,041 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Quantus Insights2026-10-24 to 2026-10-25Roy Cooper (Democrat) 52%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=722 / LV270towin.com Original release
Harper Polling (R)2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=600 / LV; sponsor: Carolina Journal; Harper Polling (R)270towin.com Original release
ActiVote2026-09-26 to 2026-10-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 57%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=400 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
SurveyUSA2026-10-07 to 2026-10-11Roy Cooper (Democrat) 54%Michael Whatley (Republican) 40%n=643 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=1,091 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=1,091 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Elon University*2026-09-29 to 2026-10-08Roy Cooper (Democrat) 52%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=561 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Elon University/YouGov2026-09-29 to 2026-10-08Roy Cooper (Democrat) 52%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=561 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA2026-10-01 to 2026-10-07Roy Cooper (Democrat) 54%Michael Whatley (Republican) 40%n=643 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Carolina Forward/Change Res.*2026-10-01 to 2026-10-07Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 40%n=829 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
East Carolina U.*2026-09-30 to 2026-10-03Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=810 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
East Carolina University2026-09-30 to 2026-10-03Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=810 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Big Data Poll2026-09-27 to 2026-09-29Roy Cooper (Democrat) 51%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=642 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Big Data Poll2026-09-27 to 2026-09-29Roy Cooper (Democrat) 47%Michael Whatley (Republican) 35%n=642 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports*2026-09-22Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=1,047 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=688 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=686 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Fabrizio/Anzalone2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 53%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42%n=1,115 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 53%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42%n=1,806 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Opinion Diagnostics2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 51%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=857 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-15 to 2026-09-18Roy Cooper (Democrat) 53%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=3,745 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
High Point University2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42%n=706 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Harper Polling/Carolina Journal2026-09-13 to 2026-09-15Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49.2%Michael Whatley (Republican) 34.1%n=608 / North Carolina statewide survey of likely 2026 general-election voters conducted by Harper Polling for Carolina Journal.poliwave.com Original release
Catawba College/YouGov2026-09-04 to 2026-09-15Roy Cooper (Democrat) 47%Michael Whatley (Republican) 35%n=885 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Trafalgar Group2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48.2%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42.3%n=1,084 / Trafalgar Group statewide survey of likely general-election voters; response rate 5.0%, 95% confidence.poliwave.com Original release
East Carolina University2026-08-31 to 2026-09-03Roy Cooper (Democrat) 46%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=675 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Elon University/YouGov2026-08-21 to 2026-08-31Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49%Michael Whatley (Republican) 38%n=565 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
High Point University/YouGov2026-08-03 to 2026-08-12Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 45%n=660 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Harper Polling (R)2026-08-09 to 2026-08-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 52%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Change Research (D)2026-08-03 to 2026-08-06Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=915 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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