D

Florida Governor Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Donalds (Republican)48%
Jolly (Democrat)44%

Research Co., fielded 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02

Cook: Lean RDDHQ: 39% D

Cook rating 2026-10-29 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing. pollcheck.co.uk

Lead of 4 pts for Donalds in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Lean R
DDHQ rating
Lean R
DDHQ Dem win chance
39%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • David JollyDemocrat
  • Byron DonaldsRepublican

Poll history (20)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
Research Co.2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02Donalds (Republican) 48%Jolly (Democrat) 44%n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
ActiVote2026-10-20 to 2026-10-31Byron Donalds (Republican) 52.3%David Jolly (Democrat) 47.7%n=400 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
RedBox Research/DPoll2026-10-30 to 2026-10-31Donalds (Republican) 47%Jolly (Democrat) 46%n=2,898 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; sponsor: A Fight Worth Having; RedBox Research (D)pollcheck.co.uk Original release
Stetson University2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30Byron Donalds (Republican) 51%David Jolly (Democrat) 45%n=852 / RVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-28 to 2026-10-29Byron Donalds (Republican) 49%David Jolly (Democrat) 45%n=1,200 / LV; InsiderAdvantage (R); sponsor not suppliedpollcheck.co.uk Original release
St. Pete Polls2026-10-25 to 2026-10-27Byron Donalds (Republican) 48%David Jolly (Democrat) 46%n=916 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
NYT/Siena2026-10-19 to 2026-10-25Byron Donalds (Republican) 48%David Jolly (Democrat) 44%n=813 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
co/efficient (R)2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20Byron Donalds (Republican) 49%David Jolly (Democrat) 40%n=1,014 / LV; co/efficient (R); sponsor not suppliedpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Univ. of North Florida2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19Donalds (Republican) 49%Jolly (Democrat) 47%n=1,471 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Univision/YouGov2026-10-02 to 2026-10-15Donalds (Republican) 50%Jolly (Democrat) 42%n=825 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Stetson University**2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09Donalds (Republican) 52%Jolly (Democrat) 41%n=716 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
St. Pete Polls2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Donalds (Republican) 45%Jolly (Democrat) 45%n=836 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-24 to 2026-10-03Donalds (Republican) 47%Jolly (Democrat) 45%n=3,813 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
NBC 6/Mason-Dixon2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01Donalds (Republican) 48%Jolly (Democrat) 41%n=625 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Stetson University**2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21Donalds (Republican) 51%Jolly (Democrat) 39%n=830 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
St. Pete Polls2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17Donalds (Republican) 44%Jolly (Democrat) 43%n=913 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Univ. of North Florida2026-07-08 to 2026-07-17Donalds (Republican) 46%Jolly (Democrat) 41%n=848 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Stetson University**2026-03-15 to 2026-04-13Donalds (Republican) 47%Jolly (Democrat) 40%n=848 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Emerson2026-03-29 to 2026-03-31Donalds (Republican) 44%Jolly (Democrat) 39%n=1,125 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Univ. of North Florida2026-02-21 to 2026-03-02Donalds (Republican) 42%Jolly (Democrat) 36%n=786 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

Open the polling map All races
D
Elect Democrats

An independent site dedicated to tracking 2026 midterm races and supporting Democratic candidates who fight for working families, protect fundamental rights, and strengthen our democracy.

This site is not affiliated with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), or any candidate or candidate's committee. It is independently operated. Donation links lead to ActBlue, a third-party fundraising platform.

Connect

Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Not affiliated with the DNC, DCCC, or DSCC.

© 2026 Elect Democrats. All rights reserved.