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Florida Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Ashley Moody (Republican)53%
Angie Nixon (Democrat)46%

Research Co., fielded 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02

Cook: Likely RDDHQ: 25% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing. 535.wtf

Lead of 7 pts for Ashley Moody in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Likely R
DDHQ rating
Likely R
DDHQ Dem win chance
25%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Angie NixonDemocrat
  • Ashley MoodyRepublican

Seat / incumbent: Moody

Poll history (33)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
Research Co.2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02Ashley Moody (Republican) 53%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 46%n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
Stetson University2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=852 / RVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Big Data Poll2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30Ashley Moody (Republican) 52%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=1,067 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; sponsor: 1776 Law Center/Public Polling Projectpollcheck.co.uk Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-28 to 2026-10-29Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=1,200 / LV; InsiderAdvantage (R); sponsor not suppliedpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Targoz2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Ashley Moody (Republican) 52%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=1,013 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics2026-10-25 to 2026-10-27Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=916 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
NYT/Siena2026-10-19 to 2026-10-25Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 44%n=813 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Echelon (R)2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23Ashley Moody (Republican) 51%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=515 / LV; sponsor: NetChoice (trade group); Echelon (R)pollcheck.co.uk Original release
co/efficient*2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=1,014 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Univ. of North Florida2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=1,471 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
University of North Florida2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=1,471 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Univision/YouGov2026-10-02 to 2026-10-15Ashley Moody (Republican) 51%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=825 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
ActiVote2026-09-27 to 2026-10-15Ashley Moody (Republican) 53%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 47%n=400 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
MDW Communications2026-10-04 to 2026-10-10Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=2,351 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Stetson University**2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09Ashley Moody (Republican) 52%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 41%n=716 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
St. Pete Polls2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Ashley Moody (Republican) 47%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=836 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 44%n=3,813 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
James Madison Institute2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04Ashley Moody (Republican) 52%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=1,171 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-24 to 2026-10-03Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 44%n=3,812 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
NBC 6/Mason-Dixon2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=625 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Change Research (D)2026-09-25 to 2026-09-27Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 47%n=1,063 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=600 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Stetson University2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 51%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=830 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
St. Pete Polls/FloridaPolitics.com2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17Ashley Moody (Republican) 45.2%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 44.8%n=913 / Florida statewide likely-voter survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com by automated telephone and peer-to-peer SMS, weighted by party, race, age, gender, and media market.poliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=733 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=733 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Change Research (D)2026-09-07 to 2026-09-09Ashley Moody (Republican) 47%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 47%n=1,107 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
University of North Florida2026-07-08 to 2026-07-17Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=848 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Change Research (D)2026-07-09 to 2026-07-11Ashley Moody (Republican) 45%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 37%n=1,348 / Unknownpoliwave.com
McLaughlin & Associates (R)2026-06-03 to 2026-06-07Ashley Moody (Republican) 47%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Global Strategy Group (D)2026-05-18 to 2026-05-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 46%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=1,000 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Cherry Communications (R)2026-05-01 to 2026-05-09Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=604 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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