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Texas Governor Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Gina Hinojosa (Democrat)48%
Greg Abbott (Republican)47%

The New York Times / Siena College, fielded 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-01

Cook: Lean RDDHQ: 32% D

Cook rating 2026-10-29 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=1,215 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±3.4; field dates per aggregator listings.. sri.siena.edu

Lead of 1 pts for Gina Hinojosa in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Lean R
DDHQ rating
Lean R
DDHQ Dem win chance
32%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Gina HinojosaDemocrat
  • Greg AbbottRepublican

Poll history (12)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
The New York Times / Siena College2026-10-27 to 2026-11-01Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 48%Greg Abbott (Republican) 47%n=1,215 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±3.4; field dates per aggregator listings.sri.siena.edu Original release
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 49.2%Greg Abbott (Republican) 47.6%n=1,678 / Adults; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Adults99chambers.app Original release
Kreate Strategies2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30Greg Abbott (Republican) 49%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 47%Pat Dixon (Libertarian) 1%n=900 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
ActiVote2026-10-23 to 2026-10-29Greg Abbott (Republican) 52.1%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 47.9%n=400 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
YouGov2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Greg Abbott (Republican) 50%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 49%n=2,141 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingcallthemap.com Original release
Quantus Insights2026-10-26 to 2026-10-28Greg Abbott (Republican) 51%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 46%Pat Dixon (Libertarian) 1%n=1,221 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
CNN/SSRS2026-10-20 to 2026-10-27Greg Abbott (Republican) 48%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 46%n=923 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Data for Progress (D)2026-10-23 to 2026-10-26Greg Abbott (Republican) 48%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 47%Pat Dixon (Libertarian) 2%n=712 / LV; Data for Progress (D); sponsor not suppliedpollcheck.co.uk Original release
YouGov Blue2026-10-21 to 2026-10-26Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 49%Greg Abbott (Republican) 46%n=1,000 / RV; sponsor: 254 Labs; YouGov Bluepollcheck.co.uk Original release
Texas Southern University2026-10-21 to 2026-10-25Greg Abbott (Republican) 50%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 47%Pat Dixon (Libertarian) 2%n=2,000 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Verasight/VoteHub2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20Greg Abbott (Republican) 48%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 46%Pat Dixon (Libertarian) 1%n=509 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Emerson/Poll VaultField dates not suppliedGreg Abbott (Republican) 50%Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 49%n unknown / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 2; Poll Vault release paywalled; field dates not statedrealclearpolling.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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