D

Texas Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

James Talarico (Democrat)49%
Ken Paxton (Republican)46%

Research Co., fielded 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02

Cook: Toss UpDDHQ: 62% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Discrepancy: 535.wtf lists 51–48; not reconciled. pollcheck.co.uk

Lead of 3 pts for James Talarico in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Toss Up
DDHQ rating
Lean D
DDHQ Dem win chance
62%
Currently held by
R

favored party inferred; DDHQ does not label party on toss-up rows

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • James TalaricoDemocrat
  • Ken PaxtonRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Cornyn)

Poll history (43)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
Research Co.2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 46%n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Discrepancy: 535.wtf lists 51–48; not reconciledpollcheck.co.uk Original release
The New York Times / Siena College2026-10-27 to 2026-11-01James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 43%n=1,215 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±3.4; field dates per aggregator listings.sri.siena.edu Original release
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01James Talarico (Democrat) 52.2%Ken Paxton (Republican) 46.2%n=1,678 / Adults; primary release not located; aggregator listing; adults99chambers.app Original release
Trafalgar2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01Ken Paxton (Republican) 48.1%James Talarico (Democrat) 47.5%Ted Brown (Libertarian) 2%n=1,089 / LV; Trafalgar (R); primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Kreate Strategies2026-10-27 to 2026-10-30James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=900 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
YouGov2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 47%n=2,141 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 1realclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights2026-10-26 to 2026-10-28Ken Paxton (Republican) 48.7%James Talarico (Democrat) 47.6%n=1,221 / LVfox7austin.com Original release
ActiVote2026-10-22 to 2026-10-28James Talarico (Democrat) 52.1%Ken Paxton (Republican) 47.9%n=400 / LVactivote.net Original release
CNN/SSRS2026-10-20 to 2026-10-27James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 43%n=923 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Data for Progress (D)2026-10-23 to 2026-10-26James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%Ted Brown (Libertarian) 2%n=712 / LV; Data for Progress (D); sponsor not supplieddataforprogress.org Original release
YouGov Blue2026-10-21 to 2026-10-26James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 43%n=1,000 / RV; sponsor: 254 Labs; YouGov Bluepollcheck.co.uk Original release
Texas Southern University2026-10-21 to 2026-10-25James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 47%n=2,000 / LVfox26houston.com Original release
Rasmussen2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%James Talarico (Democrat) 45%n=965 / LVrealclearpolling.com Original release
ActiVote2026-10-15 to 2026-10-21James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=400 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Emerson2026-10-17 to 2026-10-19James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 46%Ted Brown (Libertarian) 1%n=1,000 / LVemersoncollegepolling.com Original release
FOX News2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=1,398 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=1,398 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
CBS News2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=1,458 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage*2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%James Talarico (Democrat) 48%n=1,200 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
University of Houston*2026-10-10 to 2026-10-14James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 46%n=2,000 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%James Talarico (Democrat) 48%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
ActiVote2026-09-30 to 2026-10-14James Talarico (Democrat) 52%Ken Paxton (Republican) 48%n=400 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Cook Political Report*2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=934 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D)2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=934 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights*2026-10-09 to 2026-10-11James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 47%n=839 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Marist2026-10-08 to 2026-10-11James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=1,196 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,086 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
ReconMR/Siena2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=617 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,086 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=3,625 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-09-25 to 2026-10-05James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 47%n=861 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
New York Times/Siena University2026-09-21 to 2026-09-30James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=615 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports2026-09-23 to 2026-09-29James Talarico (Democrat) 46%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=1,128 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=881 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Pulse Decision Science (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27Ken Paxton (Republican) 48%James Talarico (Democrat) 45%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Big Data Poll2026-09-24 to 2026-09-26James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=698 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Stratus Intelligence (R)2026-09-22 to 2026-09-24James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 48%n=856 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)2026-09-19 to 2026-09-22James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,007 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Marist University2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,139 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Trafalgar Group2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17James Talarico (Democrat) 46.4%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45.2%n=1,079 / Trafalgar Group statewide survey of likely general-election voters; response rate 5.1%, 95% confidence.poliwave.com Original release
Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Texas2026-09-12 to 2026-09-14James Talarico (Democrat) 47.4%Ken Paxton (Republican) 46.4%n=1,000 / MMS text-to-web recruitment from a probability-based voter panel with additional PureSpectrum panel interviews; weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region.poliwave.com Original release
SoCal Strategies2026-09-12 to 2026-09-13James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=649 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Emerson/Poll VaultField dates not suppliedJames Talarico (Democrat) 49.8%Ken Paxton (Republican) 48.4%n unknown / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 2; field dates not statedrealclearpolling.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

Open the polling map All races
D
Elect Democrats

An independent site dedicated to tracking 2026 midterm races and supporting Democratic candidates who fight for working families, protect fundamental rights, and strengthen our democracy.

This site is not affiliated with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), or any candidate or candidate's committee. It is independently operated. Donation links lead to ActBlue, a third-party fundraising platform.

Connect

Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Not affiliated with the DNC, DCCC, or DSCC.

© 2026 Elect Democrats. All rights reserved.