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Kansas Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Adam Hamilton (Democrat)49%
Roger Marshall (Republican)44%
David Graham (Libertarian)4%

The New York Times / Siena College, fielded 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-01

Cook: Toss UpDDHQ: 49% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=736 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±4.4; field dates per aggregator listings.. sri.siena.edu

Lead of 5 pts for Adam Hamilton in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Toss Up
DDHQ rating
Toss Up
DDHQ Dem win chance
49%
Currently held by
R

favored party inferred; DDHQ does not label party on toss-up rows

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Adam HamiltonDemocrat
  • Roger MarshallRepublican
  • David GrahamLibertarian

Seat / incumbent: Marshall

Poll history (24)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
The New York Times / Siena College2026-10-27 to 2026-11-01Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%Roger Marshall (Republican) 44%David Graham (Libertarian) 4%n=736 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±4.4; field dates per aggregator listings.sri.siena.edu Original release
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 51.9%Roger Marshall (Republican) 44.9%n=2,038 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
YouGov2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 50%Roger Marshall (Republican) 49%n=2,092 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 1realclearpolling.com Original release
Emerson2026-10-26 to 2026-10-28Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%Roger Marshall (Republican) 45%David Graham (Libertarian) 3%n=800 / LVemersoncollegepolling.com Original release
Washington Post/SSPG2026-10-22 to 2026-10-26Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 52%Roger Marshall (Republican) 43%David Graham (Libertarian) 4%n=801 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
CNN/SSRS2026-10-20 to 2026-10-26Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%Roger Marshall (Republican) 45%n=838 / LVpollcheck.co.uk Original release
RedBox Research (D)2026-10-20 to 2026-10-23Roger Marshall (Republican) 46%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 45%n=1,301 / LV; sponsor: A Fight Worth Having PAC; RedBox Research (D)pollcheck.co.uk Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14Roger Marshall (Republican) 48%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 47%n=1,200 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14Roger Marshall (Republican) 48%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 47%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 48%Roger Marshall (Republican) 47%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-24 to 2026-10-04Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 48%Roger Marshall (Republican) 45%n=2,252 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
GBAO (D)2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%Roger Marshall (Republican) 44%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-09-29 to 2026-10-01Roger Marshall (Republican) 44%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44%n=1,095 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
NY Times/Siena2026-09-22 to 2026-10-01Roger Marshall (Republican) 47%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 46%n=605 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-09-29 to 2026-10-01Roger Marshall (Republican) 44%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44%n=1,095 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Emerson*2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 45%Roger Marshall (Republican) 43%n=750 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Kansas2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44.8%Roger Marshall (Republican) 43.3%n=750 / MMS text-to-web recruitment from an Aristotle voter file with additional PureSpectrum panel interviews; weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region.poliwave.com Original release
Global Strategy Group (D)2026-09-13 to 2026-09-16Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%Roger Marshall (Republican) 47%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
co/efficient2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Roger Marshall (Republican) 49%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44%n=915 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Global Strategy Group (D)2026-08-12 to 2026-08-16Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44%Roger Marshall (Republican) 43%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08Roger Marshall (Republican) 46%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 45%n=569 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
GBAO (D)2026-07-08 to 2026-07-13Roger Marshall (Republican) 47%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 43%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
GQR (D)2026-04-23 to 2026-04-27Roger Marshall (Republican) 49%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 45%n=500 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Tavern Research (D)2026-01-26 to 2026-01-28Roger Marshall (Republican) 54%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 46%n=1,013 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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