D

Michigan Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat)51%
Mike Rogers (Republican)49%

John Zogby Strategies, fielded 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02

Cook: Lean DDDHQ: 75% D

Cook rating 2026-11-02 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=1,001 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing. votes.decisiondeskhq.com

Lead of 2 pts for Abdul El-Sayed in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Lean D
DDHQ rating
Likely D
DDHQ Dem win chance
75%
Currently held by
D

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Abdul El-SayedDemocrat
  • Mike RogersRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Peters)

Poll history (42)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
John Zogby Strategies2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51%Mike Rogers (Republican) 49%n=1,001 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingvotes.decisiondeskhq.com Original release
The New York Times / Siena College2026-10-23 to 2026-11-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 53%Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%n=1,011 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±3.8; field dates per aggregator listings.sri.siena.edu Original release
Trafalgar2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47.1%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45.9%n=1,087 / LV; Trafalgar (R); primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Research Co.2026-10-30 to 2026-11-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n=450 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingpollcheck.co.uk Original release
Rasmussen Reports (R)2026-10-28 to 2026-10-29Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=745 / LV; Rasmussen Reports (R); sponsor not suppliedpollcheck.co.uk Original release
YouGov2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51%Mike Rogers (Republican) 47%n=2,093 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listingcallthemap.com Original release
CNN/SSRS2026-10-20 to 2026-10-27Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%n=768 / LV270towin.com Original release
Mitchell Research/CBS Detroit2026-10-26 to 2026-10-27Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=636 / LV270towin.com Original release
Data for Progress (D)2026-10-23 to 2026-10-25Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n=622 / LV; Data for Progress (D); sponsor not supplieddataforprogress.org Original release
Michigan State University/Verasight2026-10-08 to 2026-10-23Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51%Mike Rogers (Republican) 43%n=1,383 / LV270towin.com Original release
Glengariff Group/Detroit News/WDIV2026-10-19 to 2026-10-22Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51.4%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45.1%n=600 / LVclickondetroit.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n=1,200 / LV; InsiderAdvantage (R); sponsor not supplied270towin.com Original release
Marist2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n=1,185 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Marist University2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n unknown / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports*2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=798 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Rasmussen Reports (R)2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=798 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n=1,200 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
The Tyson Group2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 44%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Quantus Insights2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 47%n=762 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 47%n=762 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n=3,947 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
YouGov2026-09-22 to 2026-10-04Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n=3,949 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Mitchell Research2026-10-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 41%n=680 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Z to A Research (D)2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%n=483 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Mitchell Research & Communications2026-10-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 41%n=682 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=1,085 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=1,085 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
FOX News2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 49%n=1,028 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 49%n=1,028 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
The Tyson Group (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 44%Mike Rogers (Republican) 43%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Marist University2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=1,235 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Big Data Poll (R)2026-09-22 to 2026-09-24Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%n=678 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
co/efficient (R)2026-09-21 to 2026-09-23Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 45%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=843 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
GBAO (D)2026-09-19 to 2026-09-22Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=800 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
New York Times/Siena University2026-09-15 to 2026-09-22Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=605 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D)2026-09-18 to 2026-09-21Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 45%Mike Rogers (Republican) 40%n=600 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Suffolk University2026-09-16 to 2026-09-20Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 40%n=500 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
Torchlight Strategies (R)2026-09-15 to 2026-09-19Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 43%n=643 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=1,200 / Unknownpoliwave.com Original release
AtlasIntelField dates not suppliedAbdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 54%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n unknown / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 2; field dates not statedrealclearpolling.com Original release
Emerson/Poll VaultField dates not suppliedAbdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51.2%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45.2%n unknown / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing; Listed Nov 2; field dates not statedrealclearpolling.com Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

Open the polling map All races
D
Elect Democrats

An independent site dedicated to tracking 2026 midterm races and supporting Democratic candidates who fight for working families, protect fundamental rights, and strengthen our democracy.

This site is not affiliated with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), or any candidate or candidate's committee. It is independently operated. Donation links lead to ActBlue, a third-party fundraising platform.

Connect

Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Not affiliated with the DNC, DCCC, or DSCC.

© 2026 Elect Democrats. All rights reserved.