D

Alaska Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-11-02.

Latest poll

Mary Peltola (Democrat)50.1%
Dan Sullivan (Republican)44.6%
Heikes (Unknown)2.5%

AtlasIntel, fielded 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01

Cook: Toss UpDDHQ: 61% D

Cook rating 2026-10-30 · DDHQ forecast 2026-11-02. Win chance, not vote share.

n=522 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing. 535.wtf

Lead of 5.5 pts for Mary Peltola in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Toss Up
DDHQ rating
Lean D
DDHQ Dem win chance
61%
Currently held by
R

Race page Nov 1 confirms Peltola 60%

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Mary PeltolaDemocrat
  • Dan SullivanRepublican

Seat / incumbent: Sullivan

Poll history (18)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
AtlasIntel2026-10-28 to 2026-11-01Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50.1%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 44.6%Heikes (Unknown) 2.5%n=522 / LV; primary release not located; aggregator listing535.wtf Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50.1%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 49.9%n=1,200 / LV; InsiderAdvantage (R); primary release not located; aggregator listing; Final ranked-choice round; first round 48–48–2–1pollcheck.co.uk Original release
Alaska Survey Research2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29Mary Peltola (Democrat) 51%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 49%n=1,326 / LV; final ranked-choice round. First round: Mary Peltola 48%, Dan Sullivan 46%realclearpolling.com Original release
Data for Progress2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16Mary Peltola (Democrat) 51%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 49%n=694 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
PPP**2026-10-14 to 2026-10-15Mary Peltola (Democrat) 48%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 47%n=578 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 48%n=1,200 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Alaska Survey Research**2026-10-01 to 2026-10-03Mary Peltola (Democrat) 51%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 49%n=1,512 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
NY Times/Siena2026-09-22 to 2026-10-01Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 43%n=504 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
Quantus Insights2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30Dan Sullivan (Republican) 48%Mary Peltola (Democrat) 47%n=737 / Not reported by sourcerealclearpolling.com Original release
co/efficient2026-09-14 to 2026-09-17Dan Sullivan (Republican) 48%Mary Peltola (Democrat) 46%n=799 / Mobile text responses and landline interviews of likely general-election voters; weighted by age, gender, race, education, registered party, and geography.poliwave.com Original release
New York Times/Siena University2026-06-15 to 2026-06-29Dan Sullivan (Republican) 47%Mary Peltola (Democrat) 45%n=593 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Alaska Survey Research2026-06-07Mary Peltola (Democrat) 49%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 44%n=1,393 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Alaska Survey Research2026-05-17Mary Peltola (Democrat) 48%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 44%n=1,401 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-19Mary Peltola (Democrat) 49%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 44%n=1,946 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Alaska Survey Research2026-03-22Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 46%n=1,590 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-01-16 to 2026-01-17Mary Peltola (Democrat) 49%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 47%n=611 / Unknownpoliwave.com
Alaska Survey Research2026-01-08 to 2026-01-11Mary Peltola (Democrat) 48%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 46%n=1,988 / Text-to-online plus panel survey of 2,132 Alaska adults, including 1,988 registered voters, fielded January 8-11, 2026. Data were weighted by ZIP code, age, race, gender, education, party affiliation, political ideology, and 2024 presidential vote. The Senate question used a voting-probability overlay; its published response counts total 1,681.poliwave.com Original release
The New York Times / Siena CollegeField dates not suppliedMary Peltola (Democrat) 48%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 46%n=610 / LV; sponsor: The New York Times; released 2026-11-01; MOE ±5.0; field dates per aggregator listings; field dates not stated.sri.siena.edu Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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